The outlook for global wheat markets in 2026 points to significant changes across a range of areas, from production to trade. In particular, adverse weather conditions affecting the northern hemisphere and rising production costs in the southern hemisphere are seen as heralding a new era in the global wheat balance.
Following the high production levels recorded in 2025, a decline in global wheat production is expected in 2026. Drought and variable weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in the United States, are exerting a downward pressure on production forecasts, whilst rising fuel and fertiliser costs in key producing countries such as Australia are leading to a reduction in sown areas.
Nevertheless, global wheat consumption is expected to show a modest increase in the 2026/27 season. Whilst stable food consumption will underpin total demand, a slight slowdown in wheat usage within the feed sector is forecast. One of the main reasons for this is that maize and soya meal have become more competitive in terms of price.
The AMIS Report, published in June, indicates that a contraction in global wheat trade is also expected in the new season. In particular, weakening import demand in North Africa and the Near East is cited as one of the key factors driving down international trade volumes. Supply constraints in major exporting countries during the same period also support this picture.
Regional developments on the production side, however, present a rather different picture. Whilst winter wheat in the European Union is generally continuing to develop under favourable conditions, drought and late cold spells are drawing attention in some regions. In Turkey, on the other hand, the outlook for winter wheat production is highly positive. Current data suggests that above-average yields may be achieved by the end of the season.
The production outlook in the Black Sea basin is also generally positive. Whilst production conditions are progressing favourably in regions of Ukraine away from the front line, winter wheat in Russia is maintaining its strong outlook. It is reported that the delays experienced at the start of the season in spring sowings have largely been made up for.
In North America, the picture is more complex. As the harvest season approaches for winter wheat fields in the US Great Plains, a deterioration in crop conditions is drawing attention. In Canada, meanwhile, spring wheat sowings are continuing with delays due to cold weather and excessive moisture. According to data from the AMIS Report, these developments could lead to continued pressure on the global supply side.
In the Southern Hemisphere, Australia is taking centre stage. Due to the ongoing dry weather conditions in the northern parts of New South Wales and southern Queensland, a significant year-on-year decline in total sown area is expected. Conversely, the Argentine government’s decision in May to reduce the wheat export tax from 7.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent is regarded as one of the key developments supporting the market on the export front.
On the international price front, a slight easing was observed in May. Global price indices, which had reached their highest level in nearly two years, retreated under the pressure of the harvest. The strengthening of the US dollar and the softening of energy markets also supported the downward movement in prices. Whilst improved weather conditions in Canada pushed prices down, concerns over a heatwave in France provided short-term price support. In Russia, it is reported that exporters are facing margin pressure due to the strong rouble.
Assessing the overall picture, it appears that the global wheat market is entering the 2026 season with a more fragile supply structure. Although stocks are expected to show a slight increase by the end of the year, potential production losses, particularly in major exporting countries, will continue to have a significant impact on market balances. Indeed, the latest data shared by AMIS indicates that weather conditions and production costs will be the key determinants of global grain markets in the coming period.
