The global wheat market is currently navigating a complex period marked by shifting production forecasts, record-high utilization, and evolving trade policies. According to the latest AMIS report, production in 2025 is still expected to rise slightly above the previous season's output despite a marginal downward revision since July. This is largely due to increases in the EU and the Russian Federation, which are partially offsetting declines in Argentina and China.
The harvest season is in full swing, with varied results across different regions. In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat harvests are wrapping up while the harvest of spring wheat picks up pace. In the EU, winter wheat harvesting is concluding with average to above-average yields. Similarly, in the Russian Federation, the winter wheat harvest is finalizing, although with reduced yields in the southern district. However, exceptional yields in the Central district and parts of the Volga district are helping to compensate. Spring wheat harvesting is just beginning in the country. In Ukraine, the harvest is completing with below-average yields in the southern and eastern regions due to a combination of severe drought and the ongoing war.
Further east, conditions vary. In Kazakhstan, spring wheat is under favorable conditions as the winter wheat harvest finishes. China's spring wheat harvest is continuing under favorable conditions. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is finalizing under good conditions, except in Nebraska and South Dakota, while the spring wheat harvest progresses despite dry conditions in the western regions. In Canada, the winter wheat harvest is wrapping up as the spring wheat harvest begins.
Looking to the southern hemisphere, conditions are generally favorable. In Australia, however, dry conditions remain in parts of southern New South Wales. In Argentina, ample rainfall since the beginning of the season has supported favorable growing conditions, but it has also led to a reduction in the total sown area compared to last year.
Utilization for the 2025/26 season is now forecast to hit a record level, driven by increased feed use, mostly in Brazil, the EU, and Thailand. This strong demand is also reflected in the trade outlook for 2025/26 (July/June), which is still expected to rise by 4 percent from the 2024/25 level, with continued strong demand from China, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Türkiye. According to the AMIS report, despite these robust dynamics, stocks ending in 2026 are expected to remain near their opening levels after downward revisions to the Islamic Republic of Iran and historical data of the EU.
In addition to production and demand, policy changes are also shaping the market. On July 11, South Africa and other countries in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) increased import duties on wheat and wheat flour. The duty on wheat rose from ZAR 549.5 (USD 31.05) per tonne to ZAR 851.5 (USD 48.11) per tonne. The duty on wheat flour also increased significantly. On August 26, India revised the wheat stock limits that different participants in the supply chain can maintain until March 31, 2026. The new limit for traders and wholesalers is 2,000 tonnes. For retailers and large chain retailers, the limit is 8 tonnes per retail outlet. Processors are now limited to 60 percent of their monthly installed capacity, multiplied by the remaining months of the 2025-26 financial year. As noted in the AMIS report, since April 1, 2025, traders, wholesalers, retailers, and processors have been required to regularly declare their wheat stock positions.
